Opinion & Analysis

Archive for April, 2008

I made a half a billion, how about you?

In Investing on April 28, 2008 at 6:44 pm

The top 50 hedge fund managers last year earned $29 billion combined. That figure represents the manager’s own pay–excluding employee compensation–with John Paulson, (Paulson & Company), James Simons (Renaissance Technologies) and George Soros (Quantum Fund) earning a neat ~$3 billion each last year.

The Seeking Alpha article makes the point that these guys earned it–they have figured out how to make money for their partners and clients; their skill sets add value.

On the flip side, Stan O’Neal at Merrill Lynch, Chuck Prince at Citigroup and Robert Nardelli of Home Depot destroy value–if you have a retirement account (IRA, 401K, pension plan)–they took money from you.

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Jim’s Two Tech Horsemen Rides Again

In Investing on April 22, 2008 at 2:52 pm

On June 6th of 2007, Jim announced the “Four Retiring Horsemen of Tech,” namely, Microsoft (MSFT), Intel (INTC), Dell (DELL), and Cisco Systems (CSCO). Instead, Jim replaced it with his Four NEW Horsemen of Tech: Apple (AAPL), Research-in-Motion (RIMM), Google (GOOG), and Amazon.com (AMZN).

SA Editor Miriam Metzinger writes,

Apple (AAPL), Research in Motion (RIMM): Two of Cramer’s four horsemen of tech, AAPL and RIMM are riding again. AAPL’s ichat will be to instant messaging what the iPod was to the walkman and “When we get the next generation of the iPhone, it’s going to be game, set, match… Because this is going to be the smartest phone,” said Cramer. RIMM has returned to where it was before its great quarter, and Cramer thinks the stock has room to move because of new product rollouts. “If RIMM reported that quarter today, it’d be at $150.”

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GM Misses the Roaring ’20s

In Investing on April 22, 2008 at 2:37 pm

There is an interesting article by Markham Lee about GM’s new attempt to realign its eight major brands into four channels, each headed by an executive in charge of sales, marketing and advertising.

Sadly, it does not address GM’s brand issues which stems from how the brands are perceived–and not from dealer alignments or how they are sold. The article suggests that no real change until the company is ready to drop some brands and eliminate overlaps.


Home resales fall 2% to 4.93 million in March

In Investing on April 22, 2008 at 2:22 pm

Inventories continued to climb for the  US housing market in March as resales of homes fell. Surprisingly though, homebuilder stocks have had strong performers so far in 2008. Read the rest of this entry »

Goo Goo Gaa Gaa (GOOG) up 18%

In Investing on April 18, 2008 at 5:04 pm

Google (GOOG) came out today with phenomenal returns and their stock surged 18% from pre-opening trading. The thinking was that online ad spending budgets would be cut based on financial services dependency.

Additionally, most people thought Google would guide down based on Comscore (SCOR) data that had convinced people that Q1 click data was disastrous. Comscore had tipped paid-click growth declining to 2%. In reality, U.S. paid clicks fell to 9%.

Seeking Alpha writer Paul Kedrosky had the opportunity to speak to a Comscore analyst who asked for leniency, after all it was “directionally correct”. Paul goes on to note, “directionally correct” is a joke, like getting busted for speeding in a school zone, and saying you might be over the limit, but at you had slowed down and were “directionally correct”.

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You Don’t Know Jack

In Investing on April 17, 2008 at 5:17 pm

Matt Stichnoth gave some solid advice today in his article, “GE: Immelt Gets Welched.” (Great title by the way). He notes that quarterly earnings micromanagement does not create shareholder value over the long term–and instead leads to what he calls, “doom (Enron), disaster (Worldcom), and even jail (Tyco).”

He goes on to note that Jeff Immelt has simply been busy cleaning up a series of improper accounting practices and asks that Jack Welch should perhaps stop giving earnings guidance or stay off CNBC appearances….
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When CROC Hits the Fan

In Investing on April 17, 2008 at 4:54 pm

I distinctly remember the article in CNNMoney.com which profiled the meteoric rise of Crocs (CROX) from a small shoe company — crediting an innovative distribution model and Hollywood celebrity endorsements. Yet, what is trendy yesterday is crap today. They are down from an October 2007 high of 75.21 to Wednesday’s current low of 9.70.

Seeking Alpha gives two other “hot brand” stocks that rallied tremendously only to peak and never recover. Below are examples such as Krispy Kreme Doughnuts (KKD) and Hot Topic (HOTT).

Their lesson at the end of the day is there are huge profits to be gained on the upside of a super-hot consumer product or trend but be ready to exit if the trend starts to get ugly.

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Dance Like the Village People

In Investing on April 17, 2008 at 1:26 pm

Jim Slater was referenced on CNBC for his Zulu Principle; the story goes that Jim’s wife was reading on article on Zulus, an ethnic group in South Africa, in Reader’s Digest. It dawned on Jim that if his wife had gone to the library and borrowed as all the literature she could find and then flown to South Africa and lived among the villagers, in a short time, she could easily have gone on to become the world’s leading experts on the subject.

His point was to gain a competitive edge by specializing in small high-growth small companies typically ignored by larger institutions; similar to what Warren Buffett once said:

Invest within your circle of competence, it’s not how big the circle that counts, it’s how you define the parameters.

Among other things, Jim suggests:

  1. The dividend yield must be at least 4%.
  2. Equity earnings must have increased in at least four out of the last five years.
  3. Equity earnings must have at least doubled over the last four years.
  4. The latest Chairman’s statement must be optimistic.
  5. The company must be in a reasonably liquid position.
  6. The company must not be vulnerable to exceptional factors.
  7. The shares must have a reasonable asset value.
  8. The company should not be family controlled.
  9. The shares should have votes.

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Rising Costs of Living

In Investing on April 15, 2008 at 8:24 pm

The overall Producer Price Index (PPI) jumped a sharp 1.1%, following a 0.3% gain in February–the second largest monthly increase in 33 years. *Note: PPI is used as a gauge for inflation.

Meanwhile, Core PPI, which strips out volatile food and energy costs,  rose a mere 0.2%, in-line with consensus expectations. This means the Federal Reserve still needs to worry about inflation and will raise interest rates.

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Oil Hits New Record Of $113.93

In Investing on April 15, 2008 at 4:05 pm

One of the biggest news of the day is that NY crude oil has hit a new high to $113.93 as a result of the weak dollar and tightening energy supplies. Additionally, OPEC announced that it would not change its 2008 estimate of growth in world oil demand.

An Icahn Lurks in the Shadow

In Investing on April 14, 2008 at 5:14 pm

Blockbuster (BBI) announced that it was making an unsolicited $6 to $8/share ($1-$1.35B) bid for Circuit City. Nick Bubb, a Retail Analyst at the stockbrokers Pali International notes:

“The combination of the two companies would result in an $18 billion global retail enterprise uniquely positioned to capitalize on the growing convergence of media content and electronic devices.”

The bold deal would be larger than Blockbuster’s totaly market value, which at the time of closing on Friday, was valued at $630 million. Many industry analysts also suspect billionaire corporate raider, Carl Icahn’s hand in this. He owns ~8% of the company and assisted in the ousting of former Blockerbuster CEO John Antioco who stepped down last year.

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Worst over for Financials

In Investing on April 14, 2008 at 3:59 pm

Seeking Alpha writes it seems the worst may be over for banks; they expect earning to tick upward in the second half of 2008. This is mainly because financial institutions make money by borrowing short term and lending long; Seeking Alpha noted a upwardly sloped yield curve which means banks can make a lot of money from the interest rate spread.

On April 11, 2008, the difference between the two-year Treasury note and the 10-year Treasury note was 1.73 points. By converse, a negatively sloped yield curve is a good 12 to 18 months recession indicator.

*Note, the yield is calculated by taking the issued bond’s coupon interest rate and dividing it by the bond’s market price. So, if the market interest rates rise, the bond price will fall. To learn more about interest rate spreads, click here.

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